Middle East Crisis & Global Shipping

What’s Happening

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most commercial shipping, now entering its sixth week since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. Iran continues to operate a selective blockade — allowing passage for nations it considers non-hostile while blocking vessels linked to the US, Israel, and their allies. Since March 1, only about 150 vessels have transited the strait, mostly linked to Iran, China, India, and Pakistan.

Brent crude oil prices have climbed further, trading between $109 and $123 per barrel this week — up from the $94 level seen in early March and well above the pre-crisis range.

Key Developments This Week

April 2 — The UK hosted a virtual summit of over 40 countries to discuss reopening the strait. Participants included France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan, the UAE, and Bahrain. The group signed a joint statement demanding Iran end its blockade and pledging to “contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage.” The US did not attend, with President Trump stating that securing the waterway is not America’s job.

April 2–3 — Bahrain introduced a resolution at the UN Security Council to authorise “defensive” force to protect commercial shipping through the strait. However, opposition from Russia, China, and France has forced the resolution to be significantly watered down. A vote — now on a revised, softer text — has been pushed to next week.

April 2–3 — Three Omani-operated tankers navigated the strait by hugging Oman’s southern coastline, avoiding the traditional northerly route through Iranian waters. A French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned LNG carrier also transited — the first Western-linked vessels to cross since the crisis began — reflecting Iran’s selective approach to passage.

Ongoing — Iran is reportedly pressing Houthi forces to prepare a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping. The Houthis fired ballistic missiles at Israel on April 1 in a joint operation with Iran and Hezbollah, and European officials warn that attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea could resume, compounding the Hormuz disruption.

Ongoing — The European-led Operation Aspides continues to provide defensive escort for merchant vessels. The US 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit remains active in the region.

War Risk Insurance: Still Cancelled

Major P&I clubs continue to withhold war risk coverage for the Persian Gulf. Insurance is technically available for some transits, but at premiums that have increased four to six times over pre-crisis levels, making most commercial voyages economically unviable. The US government has begun offering assistance to insurers under the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, but this has not yet materially changed the picture. Until cover is restored at workable rates, the Cape of Good Hope reroute will continue.

What This Means for Your Move

The situation has intensified since last week, with the crisis now touching diplomatic, military, and insurance dimensions simultaneously. Here’s what to expect:

• Longer transit times remain in effect. Cape of Good Hope rerouting continues to add 10–14 days to Asia–Europe and Asia–Middle East journeys.
• Freight costs are still rising. Cape detours are pushing rates up by at least 20%, with war-risk surcharges stacking on top.
• Gulf-bound moves face the most severe disruption. Ocean freight into the Arabian Gulf is extremely limited and largely restricted to vessels from nations Iran considers friendly.
• Red Sea risk is rising again. If Houthi attacks on shipping resume, the Cape of Good Hope route — already the primary alternative — could see further congestion and delays.
• Diplomatic efforts are underway but slow. The UK-led coalition and UN resolution are positive signals, but neither offers a near-term fix. No country has indicated willingness to force the strait open militarily while fighting continues.

Plan ahead and stay flexible. Early engagement with your move coordinator gives us the best chance to secure space and navigate the current disruptions. Timelines may shift — we’ll keep you informed every step of the way.