Middle East Crisis & Global Shipping
Updated April 13, 2026
What’s Happening
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated dramatically over the past week. A US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 7 briefly raised hopes of reopening, but Iran re-blocked the strait within hours after Israel resumed strikes in Lebanon. US-led talks in Islamabad on April 10–12 failed to produce an agreement, and on April 12, President Trump announced a full US naval blockade — ordering the Navy to intercept all vessels and destroy any Iranian mines in the waterway.
Compounding the crisis, Houthi forces have resumed attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden for the first time since October 2025. On April 7, the Houthis struck three commercial vessels — Hope Island, MSC Grace F, and MSC Gina — along with two US frigates. On April 9, the US-flagged Maersk Yorktown was targeted by an anti-ship missile in the Gulf of Aden while under US Navy escort; the missile was intercepted. The Houthis claimed responsibility and announced further strikes on April 10. The resumption of Red Sea attacks means the Cape of Good Hope alternative route — already the default for Hormuz-avoiding traffic — now faces its own elevated threat.
The strait is now effectively closed by both sides. Iran’s IRGC insists the waterway remains under its control, while CENTCOM has confirmed the US blockade is operational. Brent crude surged approximately 7% on April 13 to around $102 per barrel, reversing the brief dip to $94 that followed the original ceasefire announcement. The outlook is extremely volatile with no clear path to reopening.
Key Developments
April 13
Brent crude surged to approximately $102 per barrel, up around 7%, as markets digested the dual blockade. The IRGC issued a statement insisting the Strait of Hormuz remains open under Iranian authority, directly contradicting the US naval blockade. Shipping lines are holding all Gulf-bound cargo and no commercial transits are taking place. The situation is described by analysts as the most severe maritime disruption since the 1980s Tanker War.
April 12
Islamabad negotiations collapsed after Vice President Vance was unable to reach a deal with Iranian representatives. President Trump announced a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, stating it would apply to “any and all ships.” CENTCOM confirmed the blockade would take effect Monday at 10:00 AM ET. Trump also ordered the Navy to intercept vessels that had previously paid transit tolls to Iran and to destroy any Iranian mines in the strait.
April 10–11
US-Iran ceasefire talks began in Islamabad, brokered by Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif. In a limited positive sign, three oil supertankers made a controlled transit through the strait — the first commercial movement since early March. Two US warships also sailed through to establish what the Pentagon described as a new merchant shipping route. Broader commercial traffic remained suspended. In the Red Sea, the Houthis claimed responsibility for the April 9 attack on Maersk Yorktown and announced additional strikes against MSC Gina, MSC Darwin, and a US destroyer in the Gulf of Aden.
April 9
The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively blocked, with Bloomberg reporting more than 800 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf. Separately, the US-flagged container ship Maersk Yorktown was targeted by a Houthi anti-ship missile while transiting the Gulf of Aden under escort from USS Mason and USS Laboon. The missile was intercepted before impact — but the attack confirmed that Houthis have resumed targeting commercial shipping for the first time since October 2025.
April 8
Iran re-blocked the Strait of Hormuz just hours after MarineTraffic confirmed early signs of vessel movement. Iran cited Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon as grounds for re-closing. The IRGC stated the ceasefire applied only to US-Iran hostilities and did not extend to Israeli activity in the broader region. Maersk issued a cautious advisory, stating that while it welcomed the ceasefire, it would not make changes to services pending continuous risk assessments.
April 7
The US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, conditional on Iran agreeing to the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude dropped sharply from over $111 to around $94 per barrel. Russia and China vetoed a Bahrain-sponsored UN Security Council resolution calling for the strait’s reopening. In the Red Sea, Houthi forces attacked three commercial vessels — the British-owned Hope Island and the Israeli-owned MSC Grace F and MSC Gina — along with two US frigates, marking the resumption of Houthi maritime hostilities.
Earlier Developments
Iran rejected an earlier 45-day ceasefire proposal. Pakistan offered a separate “two-phased” truce deal: an immediate halt to hostilities, followed by structured negotiation on Hormuz. Israeli strikes killed two senior IRGC commanders at the Asaluyeh petrochemical complex, including IRGC Intelligence Chief Majid Khademi.
Houthi forces fired ballistic missiles at Israel in a joint operation with Iran and Hezbollah — signalling readiness to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping. European officials warned that a renewed Houthi campaign against commercial vessels could compound the Hormuz disruption.
The US and Israel launched joint military strikes on Iran on February 28. In retaliation, Iran’s IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and has since carried out over 21 confirmed attacks on merchant vessels. Commercial traffic through the strait dropped by approximately 90%. Major container lines — including Maersk and CMA CGM — suspended all transits and began rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope.
Houthi forces paused Red Sea shipping attacks after the Israel-Gaza ceasefire in October 2025, but resumed on April 7, 2026 — attacking three commercial vessels and two US frigates. On April 1, the Houthis had fired ballistic missiles at Israel in a joint operation with Iran and Hezbollah, signalling their re-entry into the conflict. Iran has been pushing the Houthis to prepare a renewed campaign targeting the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The resumption of attacks means both major maritime chokepoints — Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb — are now under active threat.
The European-led Operation Aspides continues to provide defensive escort for merchant vessels in the Red Sea. The US 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit remains active in the region. USS Mason and USS Laboon are providing convoy escort in the Gulf of Aden, as demonstrated during the April 9 Maersk Yorktown attack.
Shipping & Insurance Impact
All 12 members of the International Group of P&I Clubs continue to withhold war risk coverage for the Persian Gulf. Premiums for vessels that can obtain cover remain at 5–10% of hull value — up from 0.15–0.25% pre-crisis. Until workable insurance is restored, the Cape of Good Hope reroute remains the default for commercial traffic.
Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM continue routing via the Cape, adding 10–14 days to Asia–Europe and Asia–Middle East transit times. Total freight costs on affected lanes are up 30–50%, with surcharges of $300–600 per container, fuel surcharges up 15–25%, and war-risk premiums of $200–800 per container. Air freight rates for Gulf-linked trade have increased approximately 300%.
Brent crude stands at approximately $102 per barrel as of April 13. Analysts have warned that if the strait remains closed for another month, oil could spike to $190 per barrel — a level that would risk triggering a global recession.
What This Means for Your Move
Longer transit times remain in effect.
Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds 10–14 days to Asia–Europe and Asia–Middle East journeys. This will not change until the strait reopens in a sustained, commercially viable way.
Freight costs continue to climb.
Cape detours, fuel surcharges, and war-risk premiums are pushing total shipping costs up 30–50% on affected routes.
Gulf-bound moves face the most severe disruption.
Over 800 vessels remain trapped. Ocean freight into the Arabian Gulf is extremely limited. The dual blockade makes any near-term reopening unlikely.
The situation has escalated — plan for continued disruption.
The collapse of the Islamabad talks and announcement of a US naval blockade mark a significant escalation. There is no reliable timeline for reopening.
Red Sea attacks have resumed.
Houthi forces attacked multiple commercial vessels on April 7, 9, and 10 — the first shipping attacks since October 2025. The Cape of Good Hope alternative route is no longer risk-free, and vessels transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden now require military escort.
Plan ahead and stay flexible. Early engagement with your move coordinator gives us the best chance to secure space and navigate the current disruptions. We are monitoring the situation daily and will keep you informed.
PROUD MEMBER OF FIDI GLOBAL ALLIANCE
This brief is updated daily by Asian Tigers Group to keep our clients and partners informed.
Sources: Al Jazeera, AP News, BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, DW, Financial Times, Fortune, Insurance Journal, Lloyd’s List, Maersk, MarineTraffic, Maritime Gateway, PBS, Reuters, S&P Global, The Guardian, UNCTAD, UN News, WFP, and industry intelligence.
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